15. Rate analysis (bond rates, etc)
History tells us that mortgage rates tend to track the interest rates on the
U.S. Treasurys 30-year bond (known as the "long bond"). When the rate on
these bonds goes up, the mortgage rates tend to go up almost immediately. When the rate on
these bonds goes down, mortgage rates tend to go down. However, mortgage rates tend to go
up faster than they go down.
The rates are also influenced by what Alan Greenspan, the Fed Chief, is
thinking, and what the Fed watchers think Alan Greenspan is thinking, and by the personal
life of Bill Clinton. If you gamble on what way you think rates will go, you will lose
half the time.
Graphs of the recent data for AAA Corporate Bonds, the Prime Rate, and 30-year
U.S. Treasury Bonds may be found at http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/economy/charts/int2.html
(The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis).
Current national average rates for the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, 15 and 30
year fixed rate mortgages, and 1 year Adjustable Rate Mortgages are available at http://www.money-rates.com/mortgage.htm