mortgage rate analysis
15. Rate analysis (bond rates, etc)
History tells us that mortgage rates tend to track the interest rates on the U.S. Treasury’s 30-year bond (known as the "long bond"). When the rate on these bonds goes up, the mortgage rates tend to go up almost immediately. When the rate on these bonds goes down, mortgage rates tend to go down. However, mortgage rates tend to go up faster than they go down.
The rates are also influenced by what Alan Greenspan, the Fed Chief, is thinking, and what the Fed watchers think Alan Greenspan is thinking, and by the personal life of Bill Clinton. If you gamble on what way you think rates will go, you will lose half the time.
Graphs of the recent data for AAA Corporate Bonds, the Prime Rate, and 30-year U.S. Treasury Bonds may be found at http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/economy/charts/int2.html (The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis).
Current national average rates for the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, 15 and 30 year fixed rate mortgages, and 1 year Adjustable Rate Mortgages are available at http://www.money-rates.com/mortgage.htm (money-rates.com)
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